Beef: 70% Brazil’s Domestic Market
Publicado em 08/01/2026
Divulgação
Beef: 70% Brazil's Domestic Market
Published on January 5, 2026
Agriconscient Show Broadcasted by Radio Eldorado Estadão-Brazil
*José Luiz Tejon
Translated / Copy Desk by Teacher Francisco Barbosa Bardhal
Analyzing the importing beef quota, determined by China over various countries before January 3rd, in light of Trump's attack on Venezuela, is one thing. It's another to understand it as simply tariff exercise in the Chinese market, where per capita beef consumption is less than 5 kg per capta/year, compared to Brazil’s market, of 25 kg per capita/year, for instance. Certainly, Brazil, a strategic supplier with the potential to meet an obviously growing demand in the coming years, would find negotiation formulas to address the issue.
As Dr. Oswaldo Ribeiro Jr., president of the Mato Grosso Cattle Breeders Association (Acrimat), explained us, Brazilian volume capacity theoretically above current export levels to China, would only be materialized in the last quarter of 2026, not now. However, having the United States' attack on Venezuela, the geopolitical scenario changes completely.
Chinese Quotas from Acrimat's Perspective
I got a talk with Acrimat about the aspect of Chinese quotas, and its president, Dr. Oswaldo Ribeiro Jr. kindly told me:
“Our producer perspective is one of concern because we always pay the bill. Everything that happens in the markets, whether sanitary, political, or commercial issues, negatively interferes with the price per arroba that slaughterhouses pay to cattle farmers. We even pay this bill in advance on rumors!
You remember the American tariff hike announced last July, don't you?On the very second day, the vast majority of slaughterhouses stopped buying for a few days, and consequently, the price per arroba fell significantly, impacting our entire second half.
The China issue is strategic on their part because no one buys what they don't need, no one discards surpluses. They buy our meat not because they're our friends, but because they need it.
Our prices in US dollar are the cheapest in the world, and we have volume to offer. That is attractive, but the Chinese are millennial-old negotiators; they know they need our product but always make a point of leaving us wary, whether to avoid a supply blockade or to prevent future dollar adjustments.
Cattle Farmer: The Weakest Link in the Production Chain
The cattle farmer, who never participates in these negotiations, is the weakest link in the chain because they cannot even determine the price of their product, which is set exclusively by the slaughterhouses, who pass all their crises on to the price per arroba. To understand better, there are two markets: the domestic one, which absorbs 70% of the meat we produce, and the external one, which absorbs the other 30%.
And the question we ask, which never gets an answer, is: why does the price per arroba fluctuate so sharply downward when any problem occurs with a buyer country, be it China, the United States, or another? It's because we, as producers, have difficulty understanding how all of this impacts 100% of the arroba price, even for that meat which is not for export. In this case regarding China, the surcharge would only apply to the surplus of 1.1 million tons, which would probably be reached in the last quarter of this year, not today.
There Will Be No Shortage of Meat for Domestic Consumption
In any case, the population can rest assured because the producer, regardless of price, won't let meat be missing from the Brazilian table.The producer, in fact, doesn't even know if their product stays in Brazil or goes abroad. But I'm sure our most important market is the domestic one. We hope that the measures implemented to protect this sector so important for the country also consider the cattle farmer, not just the exporting companies. We expect much common sense from the authorities in these negotiations because we're dealing with an important client who deserves all our attention. A New Year full of good news for everyone!” concluded Dr. Oswaldo.
Sector Concerns
The primary concern of the main Brazilian cattle breeding entity lies more in internal relations with slaughterhouses, as any complicating news blows first into the lap of rural producers, explains Dr. Oswaldo Ribeiro Jr.
Oil: A Powerful Negotiation Instrument
But, with the North American attack on Venezuela, with total emphasis on oil and with China being Venezuela's largest client, undoubtedly, the United States now holds in its hands a powerful instrument for strategic negotiations with the Chinese: oil. Thus, in my opinion, I'd no longer worry about the proposed quotas with tariffs of 12% for volumes up to 1.106 million tons and 55% for what exceeds this amount. By November 2024, Brazil had already exported 1.33 million tons. The Secretary of Commerce and International Relations of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA), Mr. Luís Rua, also observes a positive expectation in negotiations.
Similarly, does the president of Abiec (Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries), Mr. Roberto Perosa.
Now, observing the North American attack on an ally and strategic supplier of China in Latin America, in my opinion, metaphorically speaking in football terms, "the ball subject" of import quotas from Brazil will be kicked to the "corner, or even thrown out for a throw-in" in this game of definitive powers and interests of mega player powers, the United States versus China.
Importance of the EU/Mercosur Agreement
Therefore, more than ever, the free trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur, to be debated and decided on January 12th, takes on gigantic importance in this scenario of the "Global War" chessboard, both for Brazil and for Europe.
Alert: The Amazon, a Bank of Unique Planetary Wealth
And here, a warning: the United States has placed Brazil under investigations involving deforestation, regarding the tariff hikes, the Magnitsky Act, and the Pix system. Too much attention hereafter regarding the Amazon, a bank of unique and rare planetary wealth that urgently needs a state plan for development and national sovereignty over Brazilian Amazon.The aforementioned president of Acrimat, Dr. Oswaldo Ribeiro Jr., however, remains correct in his view, stating: “No matter where market news comes from (conflicts, geopolitics, etc.), rural producers are the first hit in these wars.”
Agriconscient Challenge
Truly, organizing the production chain and its fair coordination from before, within, and after the farm gate, is still the number one challenge for all agriconscious players. In the wake of Trump's geopolitical maneuver that captured Maduro and the US plan to take over the Venezuelan oil, the Chinese import quotas for Brazilian beef will likely fade into dormancy and be forgotten . That's my p.o.v.
*Prof.Dr.José Luiz Tejon - PhD in Education Universidad de La Empresa/Uruguay; Academic Director Brazil+Tropical Belt Nations at International Agribusiness MBA Audencia France & Fecap Brazil; Master's degree in Art Education and History of Culture - Mackenzie University; Journalist and Publicist - Harvard, MIT and PACE/USA/ Insead in France; Specialization Academic Coordinator of Master's Science Food & Agribusiness Management at Audencia in Nantes/ France, and FECAP/Brazil; Managing Partner at Biomarketing and TCA International; Professional Head at Agri Anefac; Writer, author and co-author of 37 books; Agri Personality Award 2023/ABAG -100 Most Influential People in Agribusiness; Former director of Grupo Estadão, Agroceres and Jacto S/A; 2025 Award Agriworld Group.
