2034: the agricultural sector that will prevail is already revealed in 2024.

Publicado em 11/06/2024

2034: the agricultural sector that will prevail is already revealed in 2024.

In the field of science and technology in the agricultural universe, the available knowledge already lives in the state of the art of these agents

By Prof.Dr.José Luiz Tejon*

What kind of revelation is this above? This is what students of the international Master's Degree at Audiência, France/Fecap/Brasil have asked me and it´s a very simple answer, taken from an obvious perspective. If we escape the hypnosis of distractions and generalisations, we can take, feel, and have proven evidence of the agents of the agribusiness system who are already operating in 2024 as if we are acting in 2034.

Daniel Goleman, the creator of emotional intelligence, points out that around 11% of human agents act engaged in the evolutionary forces of reality. Therefore, actual anticipators of inexorable cycles of change.

At the celebration of Embrapa Environment´s 40th anniversary, in Jaguariúna, São Paulo, Brasil, carried out in December 2022, Mr.Marcelo Morandi, former head, and  Ms.Paula Packer, current head of this institution, addressed this powerful perspective of “Anticipatory Competence”. It means demonstrating that in human history on earth, some have always seen before and anticipated what many others would follow in the future.

Considering the field of Science and Technology, in the agricultural universe, the available knowledge already happens in the state of the art of these agents before going inside and beyond the farm gates of the 11% who master the “Anticipatory” Competence.

Researchers studying the relationship between plants and microbiomes will undoubtedly anticipate what new concept experts will do in managing this “deep ESG”.

Two other visionaries saw a fundamental need along 50´s treating the food sector as an umbilically connected chain, called “Agribusiness”. It was at Harvard, under the precious observations from Professors John Davis and Ray Goldberg.

In Brasil, another genius with anticipatory talent,  Mr.Ney Bittencourt de Araújo, then president of Agroceres (the first hybrid corn seed company in Brasil, currently of great importance,  went to study with  Professor Ray Goldberg and introduced the concept of Agribusiness in Brasil, and inspired founded the ABAG (Brasilian Agribusiness Association) and Pensa/USP (Agribusiness Knowledge Center/ University of São Paulo).

So, in the same way, today we can see some production chains advanced in their coordination when compared to the majority still in friction, disharmony, and a cacophony within themselves.

Renovabio, a governmental initiative from the Ministry of Energy and Mining to expand the production of biofuels sustainably,  represents a purposeful intelligent plan bringing together organised civil society hand in hand with the government orchestrating the biofuels chain.

I also see at Abrapa ( Brasilian Cotton Producers Association) a positive leap to be followed by everyone over the next 10 years.

The Brasilian tree industry, I.B.A., is a sector that has also evolved in its orchestration and has a lot to contribute to the country's image.

Following this trend, what could we reveal that will be obvious for the gigantic majority of agriculture that plans to land, smoothly, safely, alive, and prosperous at the 2034 "Agri airport?

Let's explore seven verifiable and accessible points already accessible:

1- Management of production chains, from the A of avocado to the Z of zebu.

Aiming objectives for each category integrating industry, commerce, services, and agriculture in a symphony where goals, means, obstacles, and critical success factors are understood, held accountable, and managed. Don´t let aside the Per Capita consumption rates.

An agribusiness conglomerate such as Caramuru (One of the main Brasilian companies processing soybeans, corn, sunflower, and canola.) now ventures into logistics involving trains and ports

The Brasilian Association of Supermarkets (Abras), through its institutional and administrative vice-president  Mr. Marcio Milan,  commands the Rama – food traceability and monitoring, alongside, the  Paripassu ( traceability company which controls indicators for the agri-food sector) applying metrics that link end consumers to rural producers, concerning the safety and health of food in horticulture.

The executive president of the Brasilian Food and Beverage Industry Association (Abia), Mr.João Dornellas, states that: “We will increasingly become the world's supermarket, as well as a breadbasket”. In other words, we´ll produce and sell much more added value.

Nutrients for Life, another initiative that goes into the future by associating plant and soil nutrition with human health, through Anda, a Mission of entities representing organised civil society to public agents.

2 – Conscious Capitalism of Business Organisations.

As defined by Thomas Eckschmidt, Raj Sisodia, and Timothy Henry, are written in the book “Conscious Capitalism – Practical Guide”. We have already seen real actions being carried out by corporations, for instance, Bayer, who´s involved in a project to include 100 million small farmers around the world in contemporary technology.

Besides, UPL developing the productive concept of Plant Health, Biotrop, Koppert, Índigo, pushing farming with bio-inputs, Nutrien consolidating a distribution network, called “UP” Concept of Technological Extension, as DSM Tortuga is on a journey of capillarity over animal health.

Jacto and his Shunji Nishimura Technology Foundation in Pompeii. And we have a lot of more!

Agropalma, Tailandia City, State of Pará, Brasil, carries a vibrant show of social and environmental responsibility.

Food leaders such as Unilever have decided to include thousands of small farmers in their supply chain.

Pepsico, from its side, is bringing and revealing producers of its potatoes to the final consumer.

Following this trend, initiatives by rural producers concerning sustainable agriculture, Pantaneira Agrindustrial company,as an example,  and Marsuriana Agriculture, recently brought to life, in Naviraí, Mato Grosso do Sul;

Nestlé is supporting biodigester installations to produce biomethane at its milk suppliers; as JBS, the largest food company on the planet, is creating field strength, especially fertilisers.

Mr. Ditto BAT Souza Cruz, is valuing its members in stunning range of 17 thousand families. Unesp (São Paulo University) Campus Jaboticabal, under the leadership of Professor Paranhos, working hard for animal welfare and, also, Ms. Carmen Peres, who, in addition to her contribution to agriculture, is the editor of the book "Animal Wellbeing in Brasil, being her a national example and reference, indeed.

Ms.Marise Porto is also a real example of the ABC agriculture program, with ILPF (Crop-Livestock-Forest Integration).

These are just a few examples of what we already have in 2024 and what will be the rule in 2034.

3 – Growing and Abundant Cooperation.

Cooperatives represent the unique realistic formula for the prosperity of 100% of its agents. The “11% Law”  is truly harsh and, if there is no management and educational pressure, the majority will fall and be left behind.

However, Cooperativism has the supreme duty of not leaving people behind. Poverty, misery, and starvation will become increasingly unacceptable and, if they aren´t decisively combated, governments will be irrevocably dismissed. Therefore, this governance will require cooperatives as a state plan.

So, do we already have them today? Yes! In the world and here in Brasil widely available. Together they form the largest revenue of a business block in the country, with more than 15 million members! And, where there´s a well-led cooperative, the region's HDI is higher. Just as Mr.Marcio Lopes, President of OCB, says: “Cooperativism is prosperity”. Mr. Roberto Rodrigues, ambassador for cooperatives at FAO, adds: “Where there is a cooperative, there is wealth; Where there is no cooperative, there is poverty.”

In 2034 we´ll necessarily include millions of Brasilians in this system, abandoning welfare programs that don´t emancipate human beings as Credit Cooperatives will have an increasing participation in Brasilian financial system.

4 – Intensive applied and educated science reducing waste in every way.

From knowing that planting a seed at a high temperature means wasting a considerable part of its genetic potential, to a huge arrival of niches and segmentations of agricultural origins, based on genetic engineering, already with a “design” aimed at the specific purpose of industrial agro transformation,(or final consumer nutritional) including a positive environmental “accountability”, we will record less land use. And all of this with a deep awareness of the scientific performance of each grain, with added value since its conception.

A Cargill unit, located in the city of Bebedouro, Brasil, producing pectin, highlights the future already present in large trading companies, in addition to containers and ships transporting 70 thousand tons of commodities, they are now organisations providing solutions for agro-industrial ingredients, and in small packages.

A mechanical engineering company like MWM alongside an agro-industrial cooperative,  Primato, in inter-cooperation with other cooperatives, in Western Paraná,  Brasil, has created an agro-energy biogas cooperation, already a reality in 2024.

On the other hand, 3D printers and science syntheses, our “Nerd Farmers” already exist and will be an important part of the “ agriworld” in 2034, considering their evident deeds already in 2024.

Regarding education, global preparation, such as Esalq( Agriculture College USP), in an agreement with a university in China, and our experience with an audience in Nantes, in a planetary agro hub.

Insper( Research Institute), Fia and Dom Cabral ( Business and Trading Colleges, already exist as examples and here they are.

Examples worthy of mention and in their name, don´t let aside, too many employees from the Ministry of Agriculture such as  Mr.Cléber Soares, Ms.Fabiana Alves, honorable persons who know everything we need to do on this route from 2024 to 2034, as well as Embrapa ( Brasilian Agricultural Research Company)  and other agronomic institutes.

And, of course, conscious consumption, present today, will have a major anti-waste and healthiness transformation in consumer education, with 90 thousand supermarket sales points being transformed into education points.

5 – Climate awareness and restoration of the natural paradise.

We may not agree with the “war for human perceptions” that the environmental issue promotes, creating flags and meanings that are “worth living for” in a “cacophonous” buzz.

However, we are blessed by destiny and also in the “cockpit” of this dream (or utopia, “metaverse”) of human imagination.

We are simply living in Brasil, the only country named after a tree and with the greatest living heritage of humanity's desire, if we could obtain a convergence of all these voices.

At FGV-AGRO (Foundation Getúlio Vargas College), through the Bioeconomy Observatory, Mr.Daniel Vargas told me that the potential for environmental assets in the world would amount to the equivalent of around 50% of the world's total GDP.

Therefore, returning to those 11% who have the mentioned Anticipatory Competence, Mr. Blairo Maggi, during an interview with me, stated: “Our business is to serve our customers. We have already implemented a moratorium on soy, an initiative taken in 2012, so we cannot swim against the flow; we´ll serve customers to sell and it´ll  be 100% following the law; Therefore, whoever has the Law on his side, should not fear.”

Mr. Marcello Brito, former president of Abag ( Brasilian Agribusiness Association), nowadays academic coordinator of agriculture at the Dom Cabral foundation, also participates in the orchestration initiatives of environmentally conscious companies and besides, in an Amazonian Chocolate startup known as “Demendes”.

Ambassador Rubens Barbosa, president of Abitrigo (Brasilian Wheat Association), also considers Brasilian Diplomatic Intelligence vital as an important protagonist of the global issue and not acting as mere participants denying this discussion.

By 2034 we´ll may be in the position of “restorers” of this paradise, as Mr.Jorge Caldeira,  Ms.Júlia Sekula, and  Ms.Luana Schabib so well describe in the book “Brasil Paraíso Restaurável”.( Brasil a Retrievable Paradise )

For this, we need to reach the next two points below.

6 – Producers and rural producers in a new dimension of health agents.

Talking to Professor Ray Goldberg, he told me: “Tejon, food is now synonymous with health, the health of the soil, plants, animals, water, the environment, people; The health of humanity arises from the origin of food. We´ve entered a ‘health system’, a true health system”.

Let's no longer call farmers, just producers, once whose importance goes above and beyond “bushels”, tons, arrobas, containers, and commodities. They are essential health agents in every meaning.

So, Food Citizenship should be called “Agro-Citizenship”.

Therefore, these almost 600 million farmers on Earth, around 6 million in Brasil, must and need to be treated with a high awareness of justice.

They face risks, and uncontrollable factors in every way, whether climate changes, diseases, agripests, market factors, economic policies etc, a truly challenging “festival” of uncertainties.

And now, more than ever, our “Agripeople” are pressed into a truly scientific and technological “Olympics”, under a fierce demanding digitalisation of signals, sensors, and very modern management.

They require education, support, and protection;  we know, philosophically, that “ digital technology will always be at the service of an increasingly analog world”, as explained by Prof. Dr. José Carlos de Souza Jr, from the Mauá Institute of Technology: “because, between 0 and 0.1111, there is infinity”. He said.

It will be of vital importance a state policy and the governance of all production chains to develop something that is no longer new, but fundamental, the “Fair Trade”.

So, there must be contracts protecting farmers, even indirectly, “Health Agents”, so that on the side of the riskiest sector among the others linked to the agribusiness system, they can dedicate their time, brain, heart, and soul to the critical focus of success of the entire complex: the Production Health.

Alongside this landscape, we can already see, in excellent Sebrae (Support Service for Micro and Small Businesses) programs, the development of national “terroir”, in local productive arrangements, indication of origin, generating income and its distribution in each municipality, adding further local agriculture in large megalopolises, such as we can see in the city of São Paulo itself.

New urban aggregators will enter this universe of soils, waters, seas, and airs of the new agribusiness, in a legitimate reality of a country that is an agri-food, agro-environmental, Agro-Energy, and Agro-Human powerhouse called Brasil.

– “There are no underdeveloped countries, there are under-administered countries” (Peter Drucker).

The issue of all questions regarding the six previously mentioned aspects lies precisely in Leadership and Administrative Competence. It means mitigating uncontrollable factors by considerably expanding strategic planning and implementing “Eco-Governance” instead of an underdeveloped “Ego-Governance”, which means, the struggle of egos.

Food security is the State's main foundation.

We have spectacular examples of overcoming in the country, where cities have organised themselves, through Civil Society agents, and formulated coordination for their development. They have hired international consultants, decided on a plan, and alongside the Legislative, Executive, and Judiciary, they push their municipalities above all national HDI medians being comparable to the best cities on the planet.

We have guidelines available for this, for example, in an imaginable orchestration of national business confederations, federations, and in the municipalities' representation.

Unlike the game of “ Lose or Lose”, where one segment fights against another, we are moving towards the convergence to the opposite of “Win or Win” decisions, where the existing potential is stupidly greater than the current demand.

Confederations, unite!

So, to fulfill it all, we need the remaining 89% of Mr.Daniel Goleman's percentages mentioned at the beginning of this article, that is, 11% engaged and possessing Anticipatory Capacity. Those who see and act first, who seem to have a Cristal Ball of Agribusiness.

Meanwhile, we would have 19% who could imitate and follow the 11% mentioned.

However, the other 50% are accommodated as tourists spending (wasting) time on the planet, while the remaining 20% ​​are from the legion of “terrorists”, those who speak ill of everything and everyone.

Ecological Leadership and Eco-Governance, for 2034, will need to attract the indifferent and offer them noble causes so that the anger of terrorist detractors can be transmuted into brave and dignified struggles for the improvement of legitimate imperfections.

Likewise, these leaders already exist over here! Yes, we have them!

We just need to give them much more visibility and communication power.

By the next decade, a specific decisive factor for us to achieve greater or lesser speed on our journey to the Restorable Paradise lies under the responsibility of Ethical Media and in the awareness of its civilising role.

While writing this article, I remember that Mr.Pedro de Camargo Neto, a legitimate Brasilian agribusiness leader, was alongside Ray Goldberg (96 years old), there at Harvard participating in Papsac, the annual meeting gathering a diversity of leaders from the agro-industrial system, including his critics. And the topics debated at the turn from  2022 to 2023 were:

1 – Farmers and climate change;

2 – Farmers, trade, and regulations;

3 – Consumer preferences, nutrition, and food safety. This topic, with full adherence to ITAL, Institute of Food Technology, is available.

We need Leadership and, here it is, from the Instituto Pensar Agro (IPA), through Mr. Nilson Leitão, a true good hope window opened to the route from 2024 to 2034. Ditto for the brave women in agriculture (CNMA - National  Business Women Congress) and the promising agriculture youth (YAMI - Youth Agribusiness Movement International).

The country's GDP can double and, for this achievement, the agricultural GDP must also double in size.

Relating and linking one thing to another is part of the responsibility of leaders, who need to assume their important positions and inherent commitments.

In June 2023, Brasil Agribusiness, a major event took place in the city of São Paulo, the national agribusiness capital. The question is: Did the aforementioned event stimulate and deepen these seven aspects highlighted towards the agribusiness for 2034?

“Everything would be easy if it weren’t for the difficulties” (Barão de Itararé). And it never was!

However, the creative forces always win and overcome the energies of destructive entropies.

So, Agro 2034 already exists and it´s here running in part, along  this challenging year 2024; It´s a matter of focus and we all will be much better, I mean, all of us, not just a handful of a few privileged groups

No time to waste, Agri Hands On, Brasil!

*José Luiz Tejon - PhD in Education-Universidad de La Empresa/Uruguay; Master's degree in Art Education and History of Culture - Mackenzie University; Journalist and Publicist - Harvard, MIT and PACE/USA / Insead in France.

Specialisation Academic Coordinator of Master Science Food & Agribusiness Management at Audencia in Nantes/France and FECAP/ Brazil. Managing Partner at Biomarketing and TCA International. Professional Head at Agro Anefac.

Writer author and Co-author of 35 books.

Agro Personality Award 2023. ABAG. Former director of Grupo Estadão, Agroceres and Jacto S/A.