Beyond the Chicago Board of Trade: Risk Management, by Roberta Paffaro
Publicado em 26/03/2026
Divulgação
Prof. Tejon and Ms. Roberta Paffaro, analyst and former
Published on March 13, 2026
Agriconscient Show – Broadcast by Radio Eldorado Estadão-Brazil
*José Luiz Tejon
Translated / Copydesk by Teacher Francisco Barbosa Bardhal.
The theme now is instability, insecurity, and uncertainty. I spoke to a Brazilian specialist, Ms. Roberta Paffaro, who's extensive experience in the United States and served for many years as the representative in Brazil at the Chicago Board of Trade.
I asked for her perspective on grains, prices, and commodities and she replied:
“This is a million-dollar question. What we're seeing today is a great deal of instability, with costs rising, and will certainly be passed on, although not in the way we'd like. We see prices increasing in Chicago, but we must think locally as well.
In Brazil, the pricing base considers Brazilian currency, Reais (BRL). Therefore, it carries either discounts or premiums depending on the region, and logistics play a major role.
Let’s think about this three-pillar structure: First, the Brazilian real. We must convert Chicago quotation into our currency. Second, regional factors and third, logistics, such as transportation costs until the product reaches the port. So even if we see soybean prices rising in Chicago, we must understand that bringing that price to Brazil, and specifically to the region where we are located — whether Mato Grosso or Goiás — can vary greatly.
It's possible we'll see higher prices, yes. However, there are windows of opportunity in which it becomes important to adopt risk management and a financial strategy.
By using the futures market, producers can establish a price hedge and take advantage of the mentioned windows of opportunity. Therefore, this is a moment for financial planning and also planning with the futures market, adopting strategies that allow producers to benefit from these prices,”- she commented.
I asked Roberta whether the rise in soybean, corn, and grain prices in Chicago automatically means higher gains for producers who market their production here in Brazil. Is this relationship really that direct, Roberta?
And she explained: “It isn't a direct calculation. We must remember those three factors aforementioned. Logistics have a strong weight, and we're seeing freight costs increasing due to the war and its effects over fuel prices. This means there may be greater discounts in the local price.
Therefore, it isn't enough to think if the price goes up in Chicago there will be a cascading effect and prices will automatically rise here as well. There are, however, windows of opportunity that we must seize in order to hedge prices and financially benefit from that strategy. If we adopt this financial strategy, we can secure profitability,” she noted.
I think, more and more, everything comes down to management, risk management. And Roberta Paffaro adds: “Exactly. Price Risk Management.
There's also prior financial management so we can understand all the expenses, rising costs, and conduct a complete X-ray of the company. Then, at the moment of commercialization, we can better understand how to sell and how to use financial strategies to guarantee profitability, especially in the uncertain times we are living through now”, she concluded.
I sincerely thank Ms. Roberta Paffaro, today a manager and analyst of this complex world, who worked for many years with the Chicago Board of Trade.
It becomes increasingly clear that, beyond agronomy, animal science, and veterinary science, agribusiness today increasingly means Management and Administration.
*José Luiz Tejon – PhD in Education from the Universidad de La Empresa/Uruguay, Master's degree in Education, Art and History of Culture from Mackenzie University, Journalist and advertising professional with specializations from Harvard, MIT, PACE/USA, and INSEAD in France. Columnist for Rádio Eldorado and Estadão On-line, and the author and co-author of 37 books. Academic Coordinator of the Master Science Food & Agribusiness Management program at Audencia in Nantes/France and FECAP/Brazil.Managing Partner at Biomarketing and TCA International. Vice-President of the Brazilian Marketing Foundation (FBM) and ADVB - the Brazilian Marketing Foundation and Association of Sales and Marketing Executives of Brazil. Head of Agro at ANEFAC. ABAG 2023 Agro Personality Award. Former director of Grupo Estadão, Agroceres, and Jacto S/A.
