“Farmers Don’t Go Broke in the Downturn. They Go Broke in the Boom,” Antônio da Luz/Farsul. Soybeans Suffer from the Price Cycle and Lead Judicial Restructurings
Publicado em 12/02/2026
Divulgação
Soybeans are suffering from the price cycle and now lead judicial restructuring filings.
Published on February 6, 2026
Agriconscient Show – Broadcast by Radio Eldorado Estadão – Brazil
José Luiz Tejon
Translated/Copydesk by Teacher Francisco Barbosa Bardhal
Agribusiness has always operated through cycles of rising and falling commodity prices, as well as fluctuations in input costs. Added to this are climate uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and other uncontrollable factors that truly make agriculture a high-risk business.
Therefore, at a difficult moment like this, the president of Aprosoja Brasil — the Brazilian Soybean Producers Association — Mr. Maurício Buffon, told the newspaper Valor Econômico: “The crisis will be much worse this year. We are coming from a level of indebtedness that has been worsening, compounded by interest rates ranging from 15% to 20% at banks. Producers are unable to renegotiate their debt. What remains is judicial restructuring.”
Alongside high interest rates, soybean prices — which reached R$180 per 60-kg bag during the pandemic year — are now trading between R$90 and R$100. According to technical estimates, profitability would only begin at around R$120 per 60-kg bag.
As the chief economist of Farsul , the Federation of Agriculture of Rio Grande do Sul , Mr. Antônio da Luz, has long taught us: “Farmers don’t go broke in the downturn ; they go broke in the boom.”
In other words, planting decisions made under expectations of strong soybean prices, combined with high production costs, eventually lead to price declines and result in the perverse situation we are now witnessing.
Brazil has become the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter. It supplies massive markets such as China and has surpassed the United States. Yet at this moment, it faces financial insecurity. Companies in the soybean sector lead the number of judicial restructuring filings in agriculture.
Out of a total of 493 judicial restructuring requests filed in agribusiness by the end of 2025, 217 are from the soybean sector alone. Brazil’s total soybean production is expected to remain around 176 million metric tons. However, a decline in productivity is anticipated due to reduced investment in technology.
Even so, out of the total 5,680 judicial restructuring filings in Brazil in 2025, agribusiness accounts for 493 , less than 9% , and soybeans represent less than 4% of the national total.
The agribusiness sector is extremely dependent on financial security in management, with a strong aversion to risk. Taking on debt when commodity prices are high, then being surprised by elevated interest rates, rising costs, and falling commodity prices, precisely confirms Mr Antônio da Luz’s statement:
“Producers don’t go broke in the downturn — they go broke in the boom, when deciding the next crop.”
This scenario increases the caution of financial institutions and also tightens credit supply from technology providers to farmers. In 2026, agribusiness will overcome these challenges, but difficulties will intensify.
Another wise lesson I often heard from Mr. Shunji Nishimura, founder of Jacto S/A and the Shunji Nishimura Foundation for Technology, was: “Prepare for the downturn during the boom. If you're prepared, you'll also grow during the downturn , through innovation and cash flow. After a boom always comes a downturn, and after a downturn comes a boom.”
Wise words. Powerful lessons.
*Prof.Dr.José Luiz Tejon - PhD in Education Universidad de La Empresa/Uruguay; Academic Director Brazil+Tropical Belt Nations at International Agribusiness MBA Audencia France & Fecap Brazil; Master's degree in Art Education and History of Culture - Mackenzie University; Journalist and Publicist - Harvard, MIT and PACE/USA/ Insead in France; Specialization Academic Coordinator of Master's Science Food & Agribusiness Management at Audencia in Nantes/ France, and FECAP/Brazil; Managing Partner at Biomarketing and TCA International; Professional Head at Agri Anefac; Writer, author and co-author of 37 books; Agri Personality Award 2023/ABAG -100 Most Influential People in Agribusiness; Former director of Grupo Estadão, Agroceres and Jacto S/A; 2025 Award Agriworld Group.
