United States: Brazil's Biggest Agricultural Competitor
Publicado em 14/08/2025
Divulgação
Jacyr Costa Filho, President of COSAG
Published on August 4th, 2025
*José Luiz Tejon
AGRICONSCIENT SHOW
Broadcast by Rádio Eldorado - Estadão - Brazil
Translation,Transcription & Copydesk: Teacher Francisco Barbosa Bardhal
Today in our Agriconscient column, we hosted Mr. Jacyr Costa Filho, President of COSAG (Superior Agribusiness Council of Fiesp – Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo). He shared valuable insights on Donald Trump’s tariff war and its impact on Brazilian Agribusiness, which brings us: "Regarding Agribusiness, I remain optimistic. Comparing China and the U.S. in terms of trade, the United States is both a competitor in agriculture and a customer for our industrial goods, while China is an industrial competitor but an agricultural customer. This dynamic leads Brazil to export commodities to the U.S., where production is limited but consumption is high, such as orange juice, coffee, pulp, and others. Some of these commodities, like juice and pulp, have already returned to a 10% tariff.
Regarding Brazilian coffee, I believe it’s only a matter of time before it also reaches the 10% tariff, as Brazilian coffee is widely consumed in the U.S., and no other producer can match Brazil’s supply.
However, I’m more concerned about smaller commodities and the small agricultural businesses.
Regarding China, I expect it will buy significantly more Brazilian coffee due to its rapidly growing consumption.
China’s move to accredit more suppliers is, in my opinion, a political one cause any buyer naturally wants more options. This isn’t particularly relevant.
What matters is that China’s sustained rise in coffee demand because visiting coffee shops becoming fashionable among youth, and these establishments are multiplying significantly," commented our guest.
Mr. Jacyr, partner at AgroAdvice and former CEO of Tereos (a leading French Sugarcane Energy Cooperative), was asked about attacks on Brazilian ethanol, ongoing investigations, and sugarcane matters, given Trump’s proposal to alter Coca-Cola’s formula by adding more cane sugar. Drawing on his expertise, he responded: "I believe the first step is replacing High Fructose Corn Syrup by cane sugar, or even beet sugar, as Sucrose is unquestionably healthier for U.S. consumers. This is a positive move for America.
Regarding ethanol, we’ve had trade disputes with the U.S. since the 1980s 'cause America is a major corn producer, with 40% of its crop used for ethanol but today, the U.S. faces a dilemma: it could rapidly boost domestic ethanol use by shifting from E10 (10% ethanol blend) to E15. However, powerful U.S. oil refineries, which apply strong influence over the current administration, oppose this.
Thus, Trump is seeking new markets to absorb its excess production (about 7 billion litres on average), which would reduce Brazilian output, estimated at 32 billion litres.
So, I believe we’ll reach an agreement establishing limited import quotas during specific periods to avoid severely damaging our Northeast sugar industry, the primary target for U.S. ethanol due to proximity, cheaper freight, and the region’s status as an ethanol importer," explained Mr. Jacyr.
I then highlighted Brazil’s recent increase in gasoline ethanol blends (27% to 30%) and biodiesel blends (14% to 15%), a major advance for Brazilian Agribusiness and Mr. Jacyr added: "Undoubtedly, sugar and ethanol negotiations with the U.S. require further work. Currently, we export 150,000 tons of sugar to them under a quota. Beyond this, exports are unviable due to a $400/ton import tariff.
This quota is small relative to Brazil’s annual production (40–44 million tons) but crucial for the Northeastern states, which export at preferential prices. We could modestly raise this quota to create a “Win-Win” outcome, but it hinges on a genuine willingness to negotiate from both governments, he concluded.
Our guest offered a key strategic observation: " The United States is Brazil’s biggest competitor in agriculture, while China is the United States’ biggest industrial competitor".
Thus, analyzing supply chains and recognizing Brazil’s importance to the U.S. is essential.
Sincerely, I hope that everyone comes to a great agreement and negotiations end up positively for both sides.
*Prof.Dr.José Luiz Tejon - PhD in Education Universidad de La Empresa/Uruguay; Academic Director Brazil+Tropical Belt Nations at International Agribusiness MBA Audencia France & Fecap Brazil; Master's degree in Art Education and History of Culture - Mackenzie University; Journalist and Publicist - Harvard, MIT and PACE/USA/ Insead in France; Specialization Academic Coordinator of Master's Science Food & Agribusiness Management at Audencia in Nantes/ France, and FECAP/Brazil; Managing Partner at Biomarketing and TCA International; Professional Head at Agri Anefac; Writer, author and co-author of 37 books; Agri Personality Award 2023/ABAG -100 Most Influential People in Agribusiness; Former director of Grupo Estadão, Agroceres and Jacto S/A; 2025 Award Agriworld Group.
